منابع مشابه
Simulating and Forecasting OPEC Oil Price Using Stochastic Differential Equations
The main purpose of this paper is to provide a quantitative analysis to investigate the behavior of the OPEC oil price. Obtaining the best mathematical equation to describe the price and volatility of oil has a great importance. Stochastic differential equations are one of the best models to determine the oil price, because they include the random factor which can apply the effect of different ...
متن کاملCrude Oil Price Forecasting with Anfis
Crude oil pricing is commonly expressed as a formula referenced to Brent or WTI crude oil. The final price of these two qualities and the spread between WTI and Brent can drive the decision when the purchase of a crude oil cargo is evaluated. A crude oil price-forecasting model is presented. It is based on past data, inventory level and volatility index and it is derived with a neuro fuzzy infe...
متن کاملHistorical and Variance Decomposition for Oil Price, Oil Consumption, OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Production
Abstract I n this paper, the behavior of the real oil price and OPEC and non-OPEC oil production during 1973-2013 are modelled. Interactions among OPEC, non-OPEC oil production, global oil consumption, and the real price of crude oil are estimated using a Structural VAR model (SVAR). After providing evidence for the structural breaks in oil price in 1996, the results indicate that, ac...
متن کاملOPEC news announcements: Effects on oil price expectation and volatility
a r t i c l e i n f o JEL classifications: C51 N70 Keywords: Crude oil price volatility GARCH Covariates Modified dummy variables OPEC announcements WTI crude oil Several times a year, OPEC hosts conferences among its members to agree on further oil production policies. Prior to OPEC conferences, there is usually rampant speculation about which decision concerning world oil production levels (n...
متن کاملSemi-parametric estimation of the strategic goods (OPEC oil price)
In the global economy, crude oil is among the most important strategic goods that affects the performance of local and international markets. Prediction of the oil price has always been an important challenging topic in the global economy and producers and consumers have constantly been trying to improve their roll in the oil price changes and for many years OPEC has been one of the key players...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science
سال: 2014
ISSN: 2008-949X
DOI: 10.22436/jmcs.010.04.07